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Joined 2 years ago
Cake day: July 30th, 2023
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0·5 months agoAmazon employees starting their own businesses in 3-2-1…
God I hope so, but Trump’s continued support, specifically with white women, the largest demographic, is just BAFFLING to me.
Removed, our position of “Monk” has already been filled.
0·5 months ago“Tell Trump it was me! I want him to know it was me!”
My personal opinion is that it’s going to be far closer than anyone is really comfortable with.
I mean, look at 2020… BOTH candidates got more votes than any other candidate in history. 74 million people out of 330 million voted for Trump. 22.4% of the entire population went “Yeah, he looks good!”
Oh, it’s been going on long before now. Negative news about Biden and Biden polling was being buried before, that didn’t really stop until his train wreck of a debate performance.
Yes, Trump appears to have momentum, but it also appears to be a phantom momentum driven by right leaning polling organizations.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-hungry-harris-campaign-early?utm_source=publication-search
"I now count 27 Republican or right-aligned entities in the polling averages:
American Greatness, Daily Mail, co/efficent, Cygnal, Echelon, Emerson, Fabrizio, Fox News, Insider Advantage, McLaughlin, Mitchell Communications, Napolitan Institute, Noble Predictive, On Message, Orbital Digital, Public Opinion Strategies, Quantus, Rasmussen, Redfield & Wilton, Remington, RMG, SoCal Data, The Telegraph, Trafalgar, TIPP, Victory Insights, Wall Street Journal.
In September 12 of the 24 polls of North Carolina were conducted by red wave pollsters. Check out the last 4 polls released in PA on 538. All are red wavers."
0·5 months agoI think you guys are on two different tracks.
When @Keeponstalin@lemmy.world references “the genocide”, I don’t think they’re talking about the ongoing Israeli genocide, they’re talking about the OTHER genocide, the one in Yemen, which directly involves the Houthi.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14623528.2024.2346405#abstract
It all gets muddled because the Houthis also make attacks in the Red Sea so it all kind of conflates together.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis
But Squid is right in that child soldiers aren’t volunteers, they don’t have the capacity of volunteering. They’re conscripted, often on dire threats against them and their families.
The Israeli genocide really does have nothing to do with it. The Yemeni genocide definitely does.
0·5 months ago- What color was the ball? - Red rubber, like an old school dodgeball.
- What gender was the person that pushed the ball? - Unknown, all I saw was a hand and the sleeve of a white dress shirt with the cuff rolled up.
- What did they look like? As above.
- What size is the ball? Like a marble, or a baseball, or a basketball, or something else? About the size of a softball. Bigger than a baseball, smaller than a basketball.
- What about the table, what shape was it? What is it made of? Square natural wooden table.
Already knew.
“You shot at us! Here’s a sternly worded note!”
It won’t be overturned, but the ramifications on elections is the near term consequence.
The usual - National polls are bullshit, no national elections, yadda yadda.
But it’s been a week or so since I looked at the numbers:
AZ - Trump +2 to +6 This applies to unbiased polls like NYT/Sienna as well as biased polls like Trafalgar. It’s interesting that the unbiased polls show Trump with a bigger lead than the biased ones.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
NV - Toss up. Tie, Harris +1, Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
GA - Trump +2 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
NC - Trump +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
PA - Harris +3 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
MI - Toss Up - Tie, Harris +1 to +2, Trump +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
WI - Toss Up, Tie, Harris +1, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Plotted on the map:
Moving PA to the Harris column NORMALLY gives her the win, however in THIS case, with GA, NC, and AZ going to Trump and MI and WI moving to toss up, that means Trump is 1 state away (except NV, NV is not enough) and Harris needs two (WI + MI gives her exactly 270 which is what we saw last time.)
I will say, quite a lot of these recent polls are from right biased sources, 538 specifically calls out Trafalgar, but Fabrizio is also problematic, so is Redfield, and “Patriot Polling” seems obvious to me.
There’s lots of talk about Republican pollsters “flooding the zone”, so the results out of AZ, GA, NC may look more Trump friendly than reality.
Not just donors, I don’t expect any politician to speak against an issue that a majority of the public supports, but then we have the Republicans trying to ban abortion. I guess we’ll see how that works out for them!
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/16/us/politics/trump-latino-voters-deportation.html
Latino Republicans and Independents Back Trump’s Deportation Plan, to a Point
Hispanic voters disillusioned with Democrats want tougher immigration enforcement, but dozens of interviews showed many unfamiliar with details of Trump’s proposal.
https://www.newsweek.com/majority-hispanics-favor-mass-deportation-1913510
Majority of Hispanics Now Favor Mass Deportation
“Notably, the poll found that mass deportation was popular with Hispanics, with 53 percent saying they would favor such a program and 47 percent saying they would oppose it. White people were more supportive of mass deportations, with 67 percent saying they would back the program, and 33 percent saying they would oppose it. Among Black people, it was 47 percent in favor and 53 percent opposed.”
It’s less about Jewish voters and more about pro-Israel campaign dollars.
Folks just have no clue how powerful the pro-Israel lobby is here. Combined with the zionist Christians it’s kind of a nightmare.
https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus?ind=Q05
And their organization against progressive causes wasn’t limited to the national level either, they interfered in LOCAL elections too.
The last time a 3rd party had a chance was Ross Perot, he did not win a single state.
Video links aren’t allowed, articles only.
“I believe people should vote for a candidate or platform that resonates with them, rather than simply choosing based on who they think will win.”
College kids, man. No, you vote for the person most likely to prevent a trainwreck from being elected.
More stunning that he has 30 minutes of music he’s allowed to use…
I was on vicodin for my first year after being diagnosed with spinal stenosis. It didn’t really remove the pain so much as made it more distant?
Like someone pounding on your front door when you’re two rooms away.